← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
decks
11
(5.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
76
30-37-9
overall winrate
45.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.1%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
47.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1296
· median 1278
· range 1097–1563
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1187
Q3 1376
1685
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.1% | +4.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 10 | 4-3-3 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 49.7% | -0.1 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 10 | 1-8-1 | 15.0% | 25.0% | 33.2% | -7.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 66.7% | +8.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 21.7% | -18.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.7% | -8.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 33.7% | -8.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.9% | +13.4 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.3% | +0.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.7% | -5.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -13.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.4% | -21.8 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.6 |
