← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Fire SuitedTier 3
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
decks
4
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
24
11-12-1
overall winrate
47.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.2%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
51.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1307
· range 1032–1430
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
905
Q1 1187
Q3 1376
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.6% | +7.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.7% | +8.7 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 61.8% | +6.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.0% | -3.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -9.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.0% | -18.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +8.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
