← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Water AetherwingTier 1
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 9 | 7-1-1 | 83.3% | 73.1% | 66.1% | +7.5 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 10 | 3-2-5 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 56.5% | +2.9 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 12 | 5-4-3 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 52.6% | +1.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 12 | 9-1-2 | 83.3% | 75.0% | 69.4% | +8.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 56.2% | +2.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +4.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 54.1% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.9% | -4.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 60.8% | +5.5 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 8 | 6-2-0 | 75.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +4.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 55.8% | +3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +1.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.5% | +10.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.4% | -7.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.2% | +13.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 52.2% | +1.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.6 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.8% | +13.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.4 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 21 from this event
The 21 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (4 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Viridian Protective Trinket, Staggering Strike, Topsy Decree. Losers more often ran: Disenchant, Refreshing Charge, Cerulean Decree.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.71 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Disenchant | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Refreshing Charge | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drown in Aether | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Take Aim | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Prudent Nock | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Undercurrent Vantage | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Aetheric Calibration | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Carpsong Coda | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Aetherwing | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Extricating Touch | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Converge Reflections | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |