← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 44.2% | -3.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 42.3% | -4.9 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.6% | +14.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.0% | +16.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.0% | +18.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.3 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +25.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scepter of Fascination | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |