← HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at HIDEOUT Regionals 7th March 2026
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Aetherwing | 10.3% | 12 | 4-5-3 | 45.8% | 46.9% | 47.4% | -1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.3% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 52.8% | +1.2 |
| Water Fractal | 7.8% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 55.4% | +2.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.9% | 6 | 5-0-1 | 91.7% | 75.0% | 75.1% | +13.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.4% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 58.3% | +3.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.9% | +8.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.1% | +9.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 33.3% | -8.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.6% | +2.7 |
| Water Genbu | 3.9% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.7% | +1.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.5% | +8.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 29.2% | -13.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.6% | -7.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.4% | -18.8 |
| Fire Exia | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.2% | +0.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.7% | -9.9 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Exia | 0.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Nico | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Wind Tera Mage | 0.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 49 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Royal Ordinance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Butler's Augury | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |