Fire AetherwingTier 1
at Taichung Regional
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 13 | 10-3-0 | 76.9% | 70.6% | 60.2% | +4.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 10 | 3-6-1 | 35.0% | 39.3% | 42.1% | -3.5 |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 40.3% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.7% | -2.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 7 | 7-0-0 | 100.0% | 81.8% | 71.6% | +10.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 65.4% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 42.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 34.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 66.1% | +10.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.9 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.1% | -5.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.7% | +21.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 66.0% | +11.9 |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.8 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -6.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.5% | +5.3 |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Fire Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 24 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prudent Nock | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetherwing's Ward | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Manabolt Convergence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Contraband Revolver | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Salamander's Breath | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Take Aim | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Singeing Leap | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 |