Fire SuitedTier 3
at Taichung Regional
decks
2
(1.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
12
6-6-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.8%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1186
· median 1186
· range 1160–1212
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1170
Q3 1365
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
