Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Taichung Regional
decks
5
(3.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
39
18-16-5
overall winrate
52.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.9%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
47.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1244
· median 1235
· range 1099–1482
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1170
Q3 1365
1730
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 6 | 3-1-2 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 33.3% | -9.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -1.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 59.7% | +6.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 42.8% | -6.9 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.4% | -9.2 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.8% | +4.5 |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 55.9% | +5.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
