Water Crux AssassinTier 2
at Taichung Regional
decks
1
(0.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-4-2
overall winrate
44.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.9%
avg ELO +1.3 per match
expected value
52.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1156
· median 1156
· range 1156–1156
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
945
Q1 1170
Q3 1365
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Assassin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
