Water FractalTier 1
at Taichung Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -1.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 59.7% | +4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.3% | -1.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 56.9% | +3.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 28.8% | -12.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 41.4% | -5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 45.2% | -2.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.6% | -9.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 32.0% | -13.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 69.6% | +12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.7% | +5.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 68.4% | +11.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.2 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.6% | +23.4 |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.6% | +5.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Throne-Keeper Bullfrog. Losers more often ran: Frostbind, Chill to the Bone, Portentous Tanggu.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Frostbind | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Indissoluble Fractal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Mana | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |