Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Taichung Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 46.0% | -2.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 57.6% | +4.4 |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.3% | -5.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.7% | +20.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.0% | +9.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.7 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Overpowering Defense | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamme Sorcel | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |