Water SlimesTier 2
at Taichung Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.8 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Slimes decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ethereal Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vampiric Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blissful Calling | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gather Slimes | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ghastly Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lustrous Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Blue Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mechanical Hare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wrathful Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Magnificent Banquet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Convoking Slime | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Ears | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |