← Taichung Regional

Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2

at Taichung Regional

decks
19 (11.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
121 48-57-16
overall winrate
46.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.1% avg ELO +0.0 per match
expected value
47.1% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1244 · median 1205 · range 1067–1539 (19 pilots with an ELO rating)
945 Q1 1170 Q3 1365 1730
11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 26% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Aetherwing 7.8% 13 3-10-0 23.1% 29.4% 39.8% -4.3
Water Aetherwing 6.6% 8 2-4-2 37.5% 41.7% 44.4% -2.7
Water Fractal 6.6% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 53.6% +1.7
Wind Seiryuu 6.6% 7 1-5-1 21.4% 31.8% 36.2% -7.0
Fire Suzaku 5.4% 4 2-2-0 50.0% 50.0% 49.2% -0.5
Fire Aggro 4.8% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 54.9% +4.7
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.8% 11 6-4-1 59.1% 56.7% 52.6% +1.1
Water Genbu 4.2% 9 4-5-0 44.4% 46.2% 47.3% -1.2
Wind Wakeup Combo 4.2% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 51.8% +1.0
Fire Oblation 3.6% 5 3-1-1 70.0% 61.1% 63.5% +7.8
Fire Crux Mage 3.0% 6 1-3-2 33.3% 40.0% 46.8% -1.7
Fire Umbra Guardian 3.0% 6 3-2-1 58.3% 55.0% 54.0% +2.1
Water Astra Ranger 2.4% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 68.0% +13.5
Wind Astra Cleric 2.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.4% +11.9
Fire Crux Merlin 1.8% 4 2-0-2 75.0% 62.5% 60.3% +6.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 1.8% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 59.5% +9.1
Wind Allies 1.8% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.4% +1.8
Wind Arcane 1.8% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 41.2% -8.5
Fire Suited 1.2% 0
Slimes 1.2% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 36.4% -13.1
Water Ravishing Mill 1.2% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.4% +3.9
Water Slimes 1.2% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.6% +1.5
Wind Byakko 1.2% 5 1-4-0 20.0% 33.3% 37.6% -7.1
Wind Exia 1.2% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 65.3% +14.7
Fire Exia 0.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.2% +11.6
Fire Firebloom Burn 0.6% 0
Fire Neos 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 42.3% -12.3
Fire Umbra Alice 0.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 48.9% -1.8
Horse and Taxes 0.6% 0
Water Alice 0.6% 0
Water Allies 0.6% 0
Water Crux Assassin 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 39.3% -17.1
Water Neos 0.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 44.3% -9.1
Wind Chess 0.6% 0
Wind Crux Lorraine 0.6% 0
Wind Jin 0.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 49.2% -1.3
Wind Merlin 0.6% 0
Wind Razorgale 0.6% 0
Wind Umbra Diana 0.6% 0
Wind Umbra Ranger 0.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 62.6% +12.1
Wind Umbra Tristan 0.6% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 52.6% +2.4
Decklists · 19 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Stifling Trap, Veiling Breeze. Losers more often ran: Mastermind Scheme, Ensnaring Fumes.

Played more by winners
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 1.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Stifling Trap
Winning decks ran 3.0 copies on average, losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 3, the loser ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Veiling Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.0 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 1.3 copies on average, losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in 2, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Played more by losers
Mastermind Scheme
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Ensnaring Fumes
Losing decks ran 2.7 copies on average, winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Heavenly Guide +1.00 3 0 0
Mastermind Scheme -1.00 0 3 0
Stifling Trap +1.00 3 0 0
Abnegation -0.67 0 2 1
Scatter Essence -0.67 0 2 1
Topsy Decree +0.67 2 0 1
Sharpen Blade +0.67 2 0 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint +0.67 2 0 0
Veiling Breeze +0.33 2 1 0
Ensnaring Fumes -0.33 1 2 0
Fairy Whispers -0.33 0 1 2
Regal Inquisition -0.33 0 1 2
Umbra Sight +0.33 1 0 2
Nullifying Lantern -0.33 0 1 1
Zephyr +0.33 2 1 0
Penumbral Waltz -0.33 0 1 0
Unbroken Mustang +0.33 1 0 0
Scout the Land +0.33 1 0 0
Calming Breeze +0.00 1 1 1
Crystallized Destiny +0.00 1 1 1
Safeguard Amulet +0.00 1 1 0
Tempest Downfall +0.00 1 1 1
Blinding Orb +0.00 1 1 1
Censer of Restful Peace +0.00 1 1 1
Innervate Agility +0.00 1 1 1
Nocturne's Oblivion +0.00 1 1 0

JSON: /api/events/45826/archetypes/Wind Shadowstrike