Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Taichung Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 7.8% | 13 | 3-10-0 | 23.1% | 29.4% | 39.8% | -4.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.6% | 8 | 2-4-2 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 44.4% | -2.7 |
| Water Fractal | 6.6% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +1.7 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.6% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 36.2% | -7.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.8% | 11 | 6-4-1 | 59.1% | 56.7% | 52.6% | +1.1 |
| Water Genbu | 4.2% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 47.3% | -1.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.2% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 51.8% | +1.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 63.5% | +7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.0% | 6 | 1-3-2 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -1.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.0% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 54.0% | +2.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.4% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 68.0% | +13.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.8% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.3% | +6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.8% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +1.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.2% | -8.5 |
| Fire Suited | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.4% | -13.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Water Slimes | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.6% | -7.1 |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.3% | +14.7 |
| Fire Exia | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Alice | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.1 |
| Wind Chess | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Wind Merlin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.6% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.4 |
Decklists · 19 from this event
The 19 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Stifling Trap, Veiling Breeze. Losers more often ran: Mastermind Scheme, Ensnaring Fumes.
Show all 26 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heavenly Guide | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Umbra Sight | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |