EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Grand Archive MRC Regionals 2024. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Water Ravishing Mill

58.9%

5.3% share · 43 matches

0.9% share · 6 matches

3rd

Water Allies

57.1%

5.3% share · 39 matches

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Fire Slice & Dice	1	0.9%	6	66.7%	49.2%	59.7%	53.2%	1290	—
2	Water Ravishing Mill	6	5.3%	43	70.9%	61.3%	58.9%	53.8%	1437	↑ top
3	Water Allies	6	5.3%	39	64.1%	58.2%	57.1%	54.6%	1303	—
4	Wind Crux Lorraine	2	1.8%	12	58.3%	51.9%	55.0%	52.6%	1274	—
5	Wind Diana	1	0.9%	6	50.0%	54.1%	54.8%	57.4%	1268	—
6	Water Crux Mage	1	0.9%	6	58.3%	63.6%	53.7%	58.0%	1522	↑ top
7	Fire Slimes	2	1.8%	10	50.0%	44.2%	52.3%	49.2%	1268	—
8	Wind Overlord	1	0.9%	6	41.7%	45.1%	52.2%	51.4%	1301	—
9	Wind Slimes	3	2.6%	18	41.7%	45.3%	51.8%	51.8%	1265	—
10	Fire Luxem Assassin	4	3.5%	24	47.9%	38.2%	51.5%	45.4%	1276	—
11	Wind Allies	30	26.3%	143	51.0%	54.0%	51.3%	53.5%	1263	—
12	Wind Shadowstrike	12	10.5%	69	50.0%	49.1%	50.3%	49.5%	1283	—
13	Fire Crux Hybrid	7	6.1%	39	48.7%	47.1%	50.2%	49.3%	1371	↑ top
14	Fire Arcane	8	7.0%	49	52.0%	52.5%	48.3%	48.7%	1273	—
15	Fire Crux Mage	6	5.3%	34	52.9%	58.1%	47.6%	49.4%	1279	—
16	Fire Aggro	5	4.4%	28	39.3%	38.8%	45.0%	43.3%	1292	—
17	Norm Tera Silvie	2	1.8%	12	37.5%	46.7%	44.7%	47.4%	1111	↓ low
18	Water Overlord	1	0.9%	6	33.3%	43.3%	43.9%	45.3%	941	↓ low
19	Slimes	15	13.2%	75	41.3%	44.3%	43.6%	45.3%	1232	—
20	Water Astra Cleric	1	0.9%	7	0.0%	24.7%	40.0%	41.9%	1041	↓ low
21	Wind Neos Tonoris	1	0.9%	6	33.3%	42.0%	38.6%	40.0%	1005	↓ low
22	Water Diana	1	0.9%	6	33.3%	42.4%	35.3%	38.3%	1145	↓ low