← North American National Championship
Fire AggroTier 2
at North American National Championship
decks
7
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
49
22-26-1
overall winrate
45.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
60.2%
avg ELO +3.5 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
57.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1249
· median 1250
· range 1065–1477
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1280
Q3 1470
1750
14% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
71% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 78.6% | +16.5 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 63.8% | +10.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 67.1% | +9.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 80.9% | +23.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.5% | -6.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 39.5% | -6.7 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +2.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.4% | -6.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 30.5% | -14.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.8% | +28.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.2% | -20.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.9% | +20.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 68.1% | +29.0 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.7% | +26.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
