← North American National Championship
Water FractalTier 2
at North American National Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 59.9% | +4.7 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 70.2% | +12.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 34.7% | -8.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 72.6% | +13.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 31.7% | -9.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 33.1% | -9.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.0% | -6.0 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.9% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.2% | +6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 31.9% | -11.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -13.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.5% | -12.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.1% | +6.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.2% | -22.0 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -3.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.7% | +14.1 |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.0% | -24.0 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frostbind, Shademist Priestess. Losers more often ran: Prismspire Scepter.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Acquiescing Rejection | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Return to the Archive | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Captivating Opulence | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Shademist Priestess | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Art of War | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Orb of Hubris | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Divining Streams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flourishing Restoration | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |