← North American National Championship
Water Whirlpool MillTier 1
at North American National Championship
decks
14
(4.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
111
53-50-8
overall winrate
51.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
53.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1427
· median 1414
· range 1276–1656
(14 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1280
Q3 1470
1750
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
7% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 66.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 80.9% | +19.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 10 | 1-8-1 | 15.0% | 25.0% | 20.6% | -13.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 9 | 8-1-0 | 88.9% | 76.9% | 73.2% | +10.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 20 | 3-16-1 | 17.5% | 22.9% | 17.6% | -12.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 9 | 3-5-1 | 38.9% | 42.3% | 42.1% | -3.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 62.8% | +7.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 55.5% | +3.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.2% | +11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 60.1% | +7.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 58.0% | +5.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 47.7% | -1.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 65.3% | +9.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 55.9% | +3.8 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.2% | -5.8 |
| Chess | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 14 from this event
The 14 public Water Whirlpool Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Shademist Priestess, Exia Sight, Lost Providence. Losers more often ran: Rictus Tiding, Crimson Prescience, Tome of Abyssal Heaven.
Shademist Priestess
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Exia Sight
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lost Providence
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spalling Cleanse
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tabula of Salvage
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rictus Tiding
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Crimson Prescience
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tome of Abyssal Heaven
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Enchanted Fete
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Enrage
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 46 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shademist Priestess | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Void's Cloak | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Pearled Prayer | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Waves | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tome of Abyssal Heaven | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chime of Endless Dreams | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Enchanted Fete | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regenerate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enrage | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Limitless Defiance | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focusing Gem | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Rupture | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Angel Attendant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sacramental Rite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |