← North American National Championship
Water ExiaTier 2
at North American National Championship
decks
24
(7.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
171
72-78-21
overall winrate
48.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.1%
avg ELO -3.3 per match
expected value
50.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1455
· median 1438
· range 1221–1656
(24 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1280
Q3 1470
1750
38% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
8% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 24 | 10-6-8 | 58.3% | 57.1% | 55.2% | +1.9 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 14 | 1-12-1 | 10.7% | 19.4% | 6.6% | -17.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 9 | 8-1-0 | 88.9% | 76.9% | 73.2% | +10.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 22 | 4-16-2 | 22.7% | 26.9% | 21.1% | -10.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 15 | 5-9-1 | 36.7% | 39.5% | 35.9% | -5.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 68.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 61.2% | +5.2 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 19.1% | -19.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 65.0% | +9.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.9% | +2.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.2% | +4.0 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 29.8% | -12.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 47.7% | -1.3 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 22.7% | -20.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.2% | -10.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 62.5% | +9.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.6% | +6.8 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 53.2% | +1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.0% | +3.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 25.8% | -18.1 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 37.7% | -7.1 |
| Chess | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.8 |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 23.5% | -25.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.7% | -26.1 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 24 from this event
The 24 public Water Exia decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Void's Cloak, Shademist Priestess, Bauble of Abundance. Losers more often ran: Eventide Spear, Angelic Channeling, Spirit of Serene Water.
Void's Cloak
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Shademist Priestess
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
7, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Bauble of Abundance
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Engulf
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Spirit of Water
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Dynastic Whirlpool
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Eventide Spear
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Angelic Channeling
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 1.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Serene Water
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Relentless Outburst
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crimson Rupture
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 62 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Void's Cloak | +0.75 | 6 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shademist Priestess | +0.75 | 7 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.62 | 5 | 0 | 2 | |
| Eventide Spear | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Angelic Channeling | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 2 | |
| Engulf | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | -0.50 | 0 | 4 | 4 | |
| Relentless Outburst | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Crimson Rupture | -0.50 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.50 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dynastic Whirlpool | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.38 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Hemorrhaging Rend | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 3 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.38 | 2 | 5 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tabula of Salvage | +0.38 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.38 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Return to the Archive | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Zhang Liao, Bloodmonger | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crimson Prescience | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Tome of Abyssal Heaven | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Benediction Angel | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.25 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Chime of Endless Dreams | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Enchanted Fete | +0.25 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seething Intercession | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Tricastles of Lucenia | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Transfusive Aura | +0.25 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mend Flesh | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Exia Sight | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scarlet Tassel | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Water | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Regenerate | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.12 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sacramental Rite | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fortuitous Water | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Art of War | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Waves | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Annihilation | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Limitless Defiance | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Proof of Life | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focusing Gem | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Pearled Prayer | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Enrage | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Rictus Tiding | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 |