← North American National Championship
Fire ExiaTier 3
at North American National Championship
decks
6
(2.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
51
20-25-6
overall winrate
45.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.5%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1358
· median 1336
· range 1280–1527
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1280
Q3 1470
1750
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.8% | -7.8 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.4% | -6.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 46.5% | -2.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 71.8% | +20.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 38.6% | -7.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 20.3% | -22.1 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.7% | -9.8 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.1% | +2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.8% | +18.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.6% | +17.9 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.9% | -6.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.2% | -28.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -4.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +6.8 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Chess | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +1.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.6% | -23.0 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
