← North American National Championship
Water GenbuTier 1
at North American National Championship
decks
21
(6.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
177
98-61-18
overall winrate
60.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.8%
avg ELO +4.2 per match
expected value
56.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1418
· median 1415
· range 1185–1750
(21 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1280
Q3 1470
1750
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
10% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 19 | 11-6-2 | 63.2% | 60.9% | 70.1% | +7.8 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 14 | 12-1-1 | 89.3% | 80.6% | 93.4% | +17.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 11 | 4-7-0 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 27.1% | -10.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 9 | 5-3-1 | 61.1% | 57.7% | 62.0% | +5.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 15 | 5-7-3 | 43.3% | 44.7% | 45.7% | -1.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 10 | 7-1-2 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 75.6% | +11.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.8% | -2.4 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 10 | 8-1-1 | 85.0% | 75.0% | 79.4% | +13.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 45.7% | -2.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 49.7% | -0.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 65.3% | +8.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +2.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.7% | -4.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 32.9% | -9.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 76.5% | +15.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.1% | -10.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 53.5% | +2.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.2% | -6.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 61.9% | +7.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.3% | -17.1 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Chess | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.8 |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -4.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.7 |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.4 |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
Decklists · 21 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 8 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Orb of Sealing, Gentle Respite, Primordial Ritual. Losers more often ran: Throne-Keeper Bullfrog, Frozen Dismissal, Song of Frost.
Orb of Sealing
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Gentle Respite
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Primordial Ritual
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Engulf
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Resonating Fugue
Winning decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
losing decks 3.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Delusional Vapors
Winning decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Throne-Keeper Bullfrog
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.4.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Frozen Dismissal
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Song of Frost
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.5.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Unbroken Mustang
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Beastbond Boots
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 8 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 33 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 17 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | -0.62 | 0 | 5 | 3 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.38 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.25 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.25 | 3 | 1 | 4 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.25 | 0 | 2 | 6 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Engulf | +0.12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resonating Fugue | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 5 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Beastbond Boots | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Conniving Plans | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 7 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.12 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Delusional Vapors | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.12 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Submerged Fatestone | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Auspicious Manifestation | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.12 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purling Footman | -0.12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diamond Ribbon | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Shademist Priestess | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 6 | |
| Tidal Lock | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 |