← North American National Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at North American National Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 26.1% | -13.8 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 4 | 0-2-2 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 46.1% | -2.5 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +2.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.8% | +5.7 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 39.9% | -7.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.3% | +6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.8% | -6.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.0% | +6.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.1% | -15.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 73.2% | +17.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 25.2% | -18.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.7 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +5.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.2% | -11.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.1% | +4.6 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Chess | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.6 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.2% | +24.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.1 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.5% | -26.4 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.1% | +19.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.3% | -10.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 10 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 20 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavastorm | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crumbling Reign | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angel Attendant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |