← North American National Championship
Fire SlimesTier 2
at North American National Championship
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 35.2% | -7.1 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 35.0% | -9.6 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 54.3% | +2.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.3% | +5.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 41.3% | -4.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 45.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 51.9% | +1.0 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.7% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -8.1 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.1% | -16.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.8% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +4.2 |
| Chess | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.3% | +24.5 |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.5 |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gaia's Songbird | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Verdant Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Baby Silver Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ghastly Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Limitless Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lustrous Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Inferno Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Verdant Scepter | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Twilight Slime | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Protector Raccoon | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Kind Beastcaller | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tera Sight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slime King | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |