← North American National Championship
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at North American National Championship
decks
15
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
107
42-53-12
overall winrate
44.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.9%
avg ELO -1.7 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1343
· median 1359
· range 1131–1499
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1280
Q3 1470
1750
7% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
27% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Razorgale | 9.8% | 11 | 3-6-2 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 50.1% | +0.0 |
| Water Exia | 7.8% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 38.8% | -5.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 54.2% | +2.4 |
| Fire Oblation | 5.9% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 25.7% | -13.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.9% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 41.8% | -4.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.6% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 43.7% | -3.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.9% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 25.3% | -14.2 |
| Water Whirlpool Mill | 4.6% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 44.5% | -3.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.6% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 48.1% | -1.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.2% | -5.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.5 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.0% | +6.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.2% | -16.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 2.3% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 60.5% | +6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.7% | +8.1 |
| Fire Exia | 2.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 79.7% | +22.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 59.8% | +9.4 |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 73.3% | +22.4 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Diao Chan | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chess | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | -26.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Wind Allies | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crescendo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.4 |
| Water Allies | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 54.2% | +4.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.7% | +17.1 |
| Water Crux Merlin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Jin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.5% | +26.5 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.4% | -20.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
| Wind Exalted Alice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
Decklists · 15 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Fairy Whispers, Calming Breeze, Hurricane Sweep. Losers more often ran: Veiling Breeze, Ensnaring Fumes, Psychopomp's Gale.
Fairy Whispers
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Calming Breeze
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Hurricane Sweep
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Veiling Breeze
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Ensnaring Fumes
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Psychopomp's Gale
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 47 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tempestuous Seraphim | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Displace | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stifling Gyre | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Imperious Galebind | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sabela, Gossamer Penance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beacon Knight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Candlelight Hourglass | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Benediction Angel | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Purifying Thurible | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Claimed From Beyond | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aella, Zephyr's Hand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Psychopomp's Gale | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Faesworn Monarch | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sasha, Purifying Acolyte | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vorpal Sword | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Angelic Channeling | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Royal Oathguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Cutter | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Countermeasure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |