← North American National Championship

Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2

at North American National Championship

decks
8 (2.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
70 34-32-4
overall winrate
51.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.6% avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
50.5% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1387 · median 1386 · range 1195–1618 (8 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034 Q1 1280 Q3 1470 1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Wind Razorgale 9.8% 3 1-1-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.7% +2.0
Water Exia 7.8% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 52.3% +1.3
Water Genbu 6.9% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 44.0% -2.9
Fire Oblation 5.9% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 61.0% +7.0
Water Aetherwing 5.9% 8 4-4-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.5% +1.2
Wind Seiryuu 5.6% 5 4-1-0 80.0% 66.7% 69.5% +11.3
Fire Crux Lorraine 4.9% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 34.8% -14.6
Wind Crux Lorraine 4.9% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 66.8% +16.2
Water Whirlpool Mill 4.6% 5 2-3-0 40.0% 44.4% 52.3% +1.3
Fire Slimes 3.6% 0
Fire Crux Mage 3.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 43.0% -6.8
Fire Suzaku 3.3% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 52.1% +1.6
Water Fractal 2.9% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 41.6% -5.4
Wind Wakeup Combo 2.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.5% -20.0
Fire Aggro 2.3% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.8% +1.8
Wind Shadowstrike 2.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 47.7% -3.6
Fire Aetherwing 2.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.3% -15.5
Fire Exia 2.0% 0
Water Luxem Assassin 2.0% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.6% +15.4
Fire Suited 1.6% 0
Horse and Taxes 1.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.8% -19.5
Wind Astra Cleric 1.6% 3 2-1-0 66.7% 57.1% 64.0% +10.5
Fire Umbra Ciel 1.3% 0
Wind Arcane 1.3% 0
Water Tera Diao Chan 1.0% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.4% -15.4
Chess 0.7% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 54.1% +6.6
Fire Umbra Guardian 0.7% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 38.2% -18.9
Water Crux Mage 0.7% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 58.6% +8.3
Water Neos 0.7% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 51.5% +2.4
Wind Allies 0.7% 0
Wind Luxem Assassin 0.7% 0
Fire Arcane 0.3% 0
Fire Arisanna 0.3% 0
Fire Crescendo 0.3% 0
Fire Firebloom Burn 0.3% 0
Fire Tera Diao Chan 0.3% 0
Fire Tera Mage 0.3% 0
Fire Umbra Ranger 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 63.2% +21.2
Water Allies 0.3% 0
Water Astra Ranger 0.3% 0
Water Chess 0.3% 0
Water Crux Lorraine 0.3% 0
Water Crux Merlin 0.3% 0
Water Jin 0.3% 0
Water Tera Cleric 0.3% 0
Water Tera Kongming 0.3% 0
Water Tera Mage 0.3% 0
Water Umbra Guardian 0.3% 0
Wind Byakko 0.3% 0
Wind Crux Mage 0.3% 0
Wind Exalted Alice 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.4% +11.8
Wind Exia 0.3% 0
Wind Lorraine 0.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.9% +6.3
Wind Slimes 0.3% 0
Decklists · 8 from this event
Mirror Analysis

In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.

Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Optical Control -1.00 0 1 0
Excalibur, Cleansing Light -1.00 0 1 0
Prismspire Scepter +1.00 1 0 0
Turbo Charge +1.00 1 0 0
Crystallized Destiny +1.00 1 0 0
Safeguard Amulet -1.00 0 1 0
Sadi, Blood Harvester -1.00 0 1 0
Lavastorm +1.00 1 0 0
Blinding Lapse -1.00 0 1 0
Regal Inquisition +1.00 1 0 0
Ducal Seal -1.00 0 1 0
Angelic Channeling +1.00 1 0 0
Lightveil Agent +1.00 1 0 0
Planted Explosive -1.00 0 1 0
Elyan, Lustre Loyalty +1.00 1 0 0

JSON: /api/events/52777/archetypes/Fire Luxem Assassin