← Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Hobby Lords Lower Hutt Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Slimes | 1 | 1.8% | 7 | 71.4% | 62.4% | 56.7% | 55.6% | 1458 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 3 | 5.3% | 15 | 53.3% | 53.0% | 55.9% | 55.2% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 5.3% | 20 | 60.0% | 56.0% | 53.5% | 52.8% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Slimes | 4 | 7.0% | 25 | 60.0% | 51.7% | 52.1% | 49.8% | 1333 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 56.0% | 51.8% | 50.5% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Water Allies | 3 | 5.3% | 22 | 65.9% | 54.1% | 51.6% | 49.2% | 1337 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 58.3% | 48.3% | 51.5% | 49.6% | 1369 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Ravishing Mill | 2 | 3.5% | 12 | 54.2% | 60.3% | 51.3% | 54.6% | 1151 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Water Lorraine | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 41.0% | 51.1% | 50.8% | 1169 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 7 | 12.3% | 38 | 51.3% | 49.0% | 51.0% | 49.6% | 1229 | — |
| 11 | Wind Allies | 8 | 14.0% | 44 | 51.1% | 52.4% | 50.5% | 51.6% | 1263 | — |
| 12 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.8% | 50.5% | 50.8% | 1320 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 3.5% | 12 | 54.2% | 53.9% | 49.1% | 49.4% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Slimes | 5 | 8.8% | 30 | 50.0% | 51.3% | 48.8% | 49.9% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Tera Silvie | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.2% | 48.1% | 50.0% | 957 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 4 | 7.0% | 24 | 47.9% | 46.7% | 46.7% | 46.3% | 1370 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Water Overlord | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 41.7% | 47.1% | 46.3% | 47.8% | 1189 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Neos Tonoris | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.1% | 45.8% | 47.1% | 1080 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Erupting | 3 | 5.3% | 14 | 28.6% | 36.2% | 44.9% | 45.7% | 1197 | — |
| 20 | Water Umbra Diana | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 33.3% | 47.5% | 43.5% | 46.1% | 1126 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.8% | 6 | 25.0% | 45.3% | 43.3% | 47.2% | 1035 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 3.5% | 8 | 18.8% | 38.3% | 41.6% | 45.3% | 1127 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.8% | 5 | 20.0% | 35.5% | 41.0% | 41.9% | 1158 | ↓ low |