← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Fire AggroTier 1
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
decks
9
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
51
26-24-1
overall winrate
52.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1306
· median 1276
· range 1075–1528
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1165
Q3 1374
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 7 | 1-6-0 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 29.8% | -10.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.0% | -12.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.8% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 9 | 8-1-0 | 88.9% | 76.9% | 73.7% | +10.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.6 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 60.9% | +8.2 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.1% | +9.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.2% | -1.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.7 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.1% | +5.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.2 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.8% | -16.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -15.9 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Rococo, Explosive Maven, Clumsy Apprentice, Reduce to Ash. Losers more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Blitz Mage, Ornamental Greatsword.
Rococo, Explosive Maven
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Clumsy Apprentice
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Planted Explosive
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Sable Remnant
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Blitz Mage
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Ornamental Greatsword
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Tempered Steel
Losing decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 73 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 53 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Blitz Mage | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Crimson Tear | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Surging Bolt | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Opening Cut | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smashing Force | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Reprogram | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Powered Bishop | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Channeling Stone | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Powered Sentinel | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Arsonist | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Firetuned Automaton | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Blazing Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |