← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Water Ravishing MillTier 1
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 15 | 5-8-2 | 40.0% | 42.1% | 44.1% | -2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 63.0% | +12.5 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 76.4% | +16.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 7 | 5-1-1 | 78.6% | 68.2% | 70.7% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.6% | +3.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 54.8% | +2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.1% | +13.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 3 | 0-1-2 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.9% | -0.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.0% | +10.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.8% | -11.7 |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.8 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |