← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
decks
4
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
19
3-9-7
overall winrate
34.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -4.2 per match
expected value
44.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1246
· median 1255
· range 1150–1325
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1165
Q3 1374
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.0% | -3.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.2% | -4.5 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
