← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
decks
4
(3.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
22
5-13-4
overall winrate
31.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.4%
avg ELO -5.9 per match
expected value
44.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1235
· median 1180
· range 1134–1447
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1165
Q3 1374
1736
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 24.5% | -24.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.5% | -7.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.2% | -23.7 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.8 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
