← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Water Crux MageTier 3
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
decks
1
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
2-4-0
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.7%
avg ELO -4.4 per match
expected value
42.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1156
· median 1156
· range 1156–1156
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1165
Q3 1374
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.5 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -6.9 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
