← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Wind AlliesTier 2
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
decks
9
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
46
20-22-4
overall winrate
47.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.1%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
50.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1249
· median 1174
· range 1060–1474
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1165
Q3 1374
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 53.7% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -2.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.4% | -5.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 7 | 1-5-1 | 21.4% | 31.8% | 29.3% | -10.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 59.4% | +6.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 40.9% | -8.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 37.7% | -11.8 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
