← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Fire Crux MageTier 1
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -3.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 9 | 1-8-0 | 11.1% | 23.1% | 26.3% | -10.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.1% | +7.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.4% | -3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.6% | -6.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 70.6% | +13.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.8% | +18.1 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.7% | -24.4 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -11.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.4% | +1.4 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 35 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |