← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Fire Crux HybridTier 1
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 11 | 5-4-2 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 50.8% | +0.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.8% | +0.5 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.6% | -16.9 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 35.9% | -7.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 75.5% | +24.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +17.0 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +11.9 |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.9% | +15.3 |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.4% | -17.8 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Crux Hybrid decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Disintegrate, Potion Infusion: Seal.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Disintegrate | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Library Witch | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Memento Mori | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |