← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Water Umbra TristanTier 2
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
decks
2
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
7-3-4
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.5%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
56.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1553
· median 1553
· range 1536–1569
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1165
Q3 1374
1736
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.8% | +1.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 61.7% | +8.7 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.5 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.3% | -6.0 |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Umbra Tristan decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
