← CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
Fire EruptingTier 3
at CoreTCG Grand Archive Mercurial Heart Regional Championship
decks
2
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
10
4-5-1
overall winrate
45.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.1%
avg ELO +2.7 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1216
· median 1216
· range 1199–1233
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1005
Q1 1165
Q3 1374
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -11.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 7.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 49.4% | -0.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.6 |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Tristan | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Water Overlord | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
