← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 12 | 3-8-1 | 29.2% | 34.4% | 35.1% | -6.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 11 | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 39.6% | -4.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.6% | -1.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.4% | +3.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 34.8% | -24.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.6% | -15.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.7% | +7.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.7% | +23.5 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.8 |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.1 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.9% | -20.3 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erratic Bolt | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arcane Disposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Arcane | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer into Mana | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Anger the Skies | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Voltaic Sphere | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Advent of the Stormcaller | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Storm Tyrant's Eye | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Power Overwhelming | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |