← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Wind Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.3% | +1.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.8% | -17.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.1% | +1.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 80.1% | +19.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.7% | -22.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +19.0 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Adversity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blue Slime | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seafaring Mercenary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Phalanx Captain | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dream Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Academy Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |