← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
10
(3.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74
37-36-1
overall winrate
50.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
49.0%
avg ELO -0.3 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1302
· median 1342
· range 1127–1422
(10 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
20% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 17 | 8-8-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 45.8% | -2.1 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.7% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 41.3% | -4.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 7 | 5-2-0 | 71.4% | 63.6% | 64.7% | +7.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 38.1% | -5.5 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.4% | -2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.9% | +4.4 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.3% | +19.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.2% | +14.6 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.0% | -22.4 |
Decklists · 10 from this event
The 10 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Focused Flames, Spontaneous Combustion, Meltdown. Losers more often ran: Resolute Stand, Incarnate Majesty, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.
Focused Flames
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Spontaneous Combustion
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Meltdown
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Potion Infusion: Seal
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Relentless Hexchaser
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Incarnate Majesty
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 47 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Focused Flames | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Savage Slash | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spontaneous Combustion | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Meltdown | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Relentless Hexchaser | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Incendiary Fractal | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Repelling Palmblast | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Retold Fortune | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purge in Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Firetongue | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tether in Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |