← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Water VanitasTier 3
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
2
(0.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
7-10-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.3%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
42.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1200
· median 1200
· range 1153–1247
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.6% | -19.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 33.5% | -12.4 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.5% | -17.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.6% | +6.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.1% | -6.4 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Water Vanitas decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
