← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Water Crux MageTier 3
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
3
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
6-13-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.9%
avg ELO -5.4 per match
expected value
39.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
38.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1208
· median 1212
· range 1130–1280
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 6 | 0-6-0 | 0.0% | 20.0% | 16.3% | -18.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 38.3% | -8.7 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.2 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
