← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Water AlliesTier 2
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 19 | 9-9-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -0.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 16 | 7-8-1 | 46.9% | 47.5% | 46.6% | -1.3 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 50.2% | +0.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.5 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 49.9% | -0.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.2% | -8.2 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.2% | +2.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.5% | -3.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.9 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.2 |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.7% | +2.8 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.9 |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.8% | +20.5 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +2.8 |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.8 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 63 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dungeon Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Primordial Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Penetrator Round | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Bombastic Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Pistol | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Calamity Cannon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rocket Jump | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Purified Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fracturize | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cruiser | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Recruit | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tasershot | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Bombard Flarecannon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reposition | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Loaded Thoughts | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Grim Stalker | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vicious Slice | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |