← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Water Crux LorraineTier 2
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
3
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31
17-8-6
overall winrate
64.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.5%
avg ELO +2.0 per match
expected value
59.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
55.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1363
· median 1357
· range 1197–1536
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 8 | 3-2-3 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 48.4% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 59.3% | +6.9 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 61.1% | +5.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.9% | -4.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 69.9% | +19.1 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.5% | +3.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.2% | -17.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.6% | -26.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
