← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
25
(8.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
194
76-92-26
overall winrate
45.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.0%
avg ELO -1.0 per match
expected value
45.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1277
· median 1272
· range 1080–1549
(25 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
16% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
24% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 48 | 18-26-4 | 41.7% | 42.3% | 41.4% | -3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 27 | 11-11-5 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +0.6 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 17 | 3-10-4 | 29.4% | 33.3% | 34.5% | -6.1 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 23 | 12-9-2 | 56.5% | 55.6% | 54.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 14 | 4-6-4 | 42.9% | 44.4% | 44.8% | -2.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 7 | 2-2-3 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.0% | +1.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 7 | 2-5-0 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 35.3% | -7.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 44.6% | -3.1 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 37.5% | -8.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 50.7% | +0.3 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.8% | +8.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.5% | -18.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.5% | -13.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 74.8% | +18.5 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.4% | -6.4 |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.7% | -19.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 67.8% | +17.0 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.8% | +19.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 71.0% | +15.7 |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.9% | +3.8 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 25 from this event
The 25 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 12 mirror matches (2 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Song of Frost, Frostbind, Diffusive Block. Losers more often ran: Savage Smash, Revitalizing Cleanse, Freezing Steel.
Song of Frost
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.5.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Diffusive Block
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.9.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 8.
Reprogram
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Waverider Protector
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 5.
Savage Smash
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Freezing Steel
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Hailstorm Guard
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
7, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Fractal of Intrusion
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Smoke Bombs
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 12 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 9.
Show all 63 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 43 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savage Smash | -0.58 | 0 | 7 | 1 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.50 | 8 | 2 | 2 | |
| Frostbind | +0.42 | 6 | 1 | 5 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.42 | 2 | 7 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.42 | 2 | 7 | 1 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | -0.42 | 2 | 7 | 0 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.33 | 4 | 0 | 8 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | -0.33 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.33 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Waverider Protector | +0.25 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 0 | 3 | 9 | |
| Tidal Sweep | -0.25 | 3 | 6 | 2 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | -0.17 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 10 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.17 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +0.17 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | +0.17 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.17 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Lance | -0.17 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Water | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.08 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fracturize | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| Cerulean Decree | +0.08 | 4 | 3 | 5 | |
| Icebound Slam | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Ravishing Finale | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 9 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.08 | 5 | 4 | 3 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 9 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.08 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| Water Barrier | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Powered Defender | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Freeze Stiff | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Glitter | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stillwater Patrol | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.08 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prototype Shield | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -0.08 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dahlia, Idyllic Dreamer | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | -0.08 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guarded Dissipation | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Snow | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | +0.08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |
| Desperate Dive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cloak of Stillwater | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |