← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Wind Umbra RangerTier 3
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
3
(1.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
9-11-3
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
44.5%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
47.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1365
· median 1331
· range 1321–1445
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.6% | -2.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Wind Allies | 9.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.6% | -6.6 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.4% | -3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.4% | -18.5 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Wind Umbra Ranger decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
