← Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
Wind AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Chicago 2024 Main Event
decks
28
(9.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
214
99-97-18
overall winrate
50.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.5%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1279
· range 976–1548
(28 pilots with an ELO rating)
976
Q1 1188
Q3 1384
1736
29% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 17.7% | 42 | 19-20-3 | 48.8% | 48.9% | 47.1% | -1.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.5% | 39 | 11-23-5 | 34.6% | 36.0% | 35.2% | -5.2 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 8.9% | 27 | 14-12-1 | 53.7% | 53.2% | 53.1% | +1.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.9% | 17 | 10-3-4 | 70.6% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +6.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.1% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 56.1% | +2.7 |
| Water Allies | 3.9% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.5% | 12 | 6-6-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.3% | +1.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.5% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Erupting | 2.1% | 9 | 3-6-0 | 33.3% | 38.5% | 49.0% | -0.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.8% | +8.0 |
| Water Neos | 1.4% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 64.6% | +10.9 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.3% | +19.5 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.1% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 38.9% | -5.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.1% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.4% | +6.6 |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.8% | +23.7 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.2% | +22.7 |
| Water Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.7% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 34.0% | -10.2 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.4% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 29.0% | -15.7 |
| Water Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Silvie | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tonoris | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.9% | -1.7 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.8 |
| Wind Neos | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.4 |
Decklists · 28 from this event
The 28 public Wind Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 10 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Poisoned Coating Oil, Charged Mannequin, Windrider Vanguard. Losers more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Crimson Protective Trinket, Attune with the Winds.
Poisoned Coating Oil
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Charged Mannequin
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Windrider Vanguard
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Reclaim
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Rose, Eternal Paragon
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 2.
Armored Valkyrie
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Crimson Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 7.
Attune with the Winds
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 4.
Woodland Squirrels
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 10 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 6.
Show all 103 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 83 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.40 | 5 | 1 | 4 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.30 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Charged Mannequin | +0.30 | 5 | 2 | 2 | |
| Windrider Vanguard | +0.30 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.30 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Rose, Eternal Paragon | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Armored Valkyrie | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Attune with the Winds | -0.20 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 8 | |
| Vigilant Sentry | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Rallied Advance | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Andronika, Eternal Herald | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Second Wind | +0.20 | 5 | 3 | 0 | |
| Eternal Magistrate | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 3 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Zephyr | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.20 | 3 | 1 | 6 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 6 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -0.20 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Hurricane Sweep | +0.20 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.20 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Veiled Dash | +0.20 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 9 | |
| Life Essence Amulet | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Manufacture Cell | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.10 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.10 | 5 | 4 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.10 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
| Arrow Trap | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Prototype Pistol | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Windpiercer | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 3 | |
| Skirting Step | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Alkahest | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blessed Clergy | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Distilled Atrophy | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Eye of Argus | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tonic of Remembrance | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Alchemist | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Growth | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Windmill Engineer | -0.10 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nurture Crops | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wildgrowth Elixir | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Harvest Herbs | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellshield: Wind | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Master Alchemist | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion of Healing | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Imperial Recruit | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.10 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diablerie | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Gearstride Gloves | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Imperial Spy | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surveil the Winds | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark of Fervor | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Outlook | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | -0.10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Might of Humanity | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Allied Warpriestess | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Synthetic Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 8 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Phalanx Captain | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |