EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 20241229 RL.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 3 | 4.2% | 18 | 63.9% | 56.3% | 56.5% | 54.5% | 1311 | — |
| 2 | Wind Allies | 6 | 8.3% | 33 | 62.1% | 56.6% | 55.9% | 53.6% | 1350 | — |
| 3 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 64.3% | 48.0% | 55.0% | 51.2% | 1568 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 8 | 11.1% | 42 | 52.4% | 52.7% | 52.8% | 52.8% | 1306 | — |
| 5 | Water Umbra Ranger | 1 | 1.4% | 4 | 50.0% | 51.7% | 52.3% | 53.0% | 1209 | ↓ low |
| 6 | Water Ravishing Mill | 8 | 11.1% | 47 | 59.6% | 56.0% | 52.2% | 51.3% | 1336 | — |
| 7 | Wind Astra Cleric | 6 | 8.3% | 40 | 53.8% | 50.9% | 51.5% | 51.1% | 1287 | — |
| 8 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 64.3% | 59.7% | 51.5% | 52.8% | 1352 | — |
| 9 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 55.5% | 49.1% | 48.9% | 1338 | — |
| 10 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 50.0% | 58.6% | 49.1% | 53.3% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 11 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 57.1% | 62.2% | 48.4% | 50.5% | 1229 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Wind Razorgale | 4 | 5.6% | 20 | 45.0% | 50.1% | 48.0% | 49.3% | 1257 | — |
| 13 | Water Penguin Mill | 7 | 9.7% | 32 | 42.2% | 34.7% | 47.1% | 42.7% | 1368 | ↑ top |
| 14 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 1.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 47.5% | 46.7% | 48.1% | 1543 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Wind Shadowstrike | 4 | 5.6% | 21 | 33.3% | 40.4% | 46.6% | 48.8% | 1279 | — |
| 16 | Slimes | 14 | 19.4% | 64 | 46.1% | 51.2% | 46.5% | 49.5% | 1244 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Neos | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 28.6% | 30.6% | 44.8% | 42.1% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.4% | 5 | 40.0% | 49.4% | 42.9% | 45.4% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 2.8% | 7 | 14.3% | 34.4% | 42.8% | 44.6% | 1322 | — |
| 20 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 1.4% | 4 | 0.0% | 34.7% | 40.0% | 43.3% | 1076 | ↓ low |