Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
15
(4.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
122
58-60-4
overall winrate
49.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.1%
avg ELO +0.7 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1339
· median 1262
· range 1113–1642
(15 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 23 | 9-14-0 | 39.1% | 40.7% | 46.2% | -1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 15 | 9-6-0 | 60.0% | 57.9% | 51.8% | +0.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 9 | 4-5-0 | 44.4% | 46.2% | 43.7% | -2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 11 | 5-6-0 | 45.5% | 46.7% | 49.0% | -0.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 28.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 63.8% | +5.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 11 | 8-2-1 | 77.3% | 70.0% | 76.8% | +11.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +1.4 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -7.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 59.5% | +5.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 51.0% | +0.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.1% | -3.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.9 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -1.3 |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.1% | +5.8 |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.8% | -15.5 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Captivating Cutthroat, Corhazi Courier, Rending Flames. Losers more often ran: Hasty Messenger, Blazing Bowman, Immolation Trap.
Captivating Cutthroat
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Corhazi Courier
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Rending Flames
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Water Resonance Bauble
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Lurking Assailant
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper
Winning decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Hasty Messenger
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Blazing Bowman
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Immolation Trap
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heated Vengeance
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Beastsoul Visage
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 36 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.80 | 4 | 0 | 1 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.60 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Surging Bolt | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Impact Hammer | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Coating Oil | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | -0.20 | 2 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Vicious Slice | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cell Assembler | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Charged Mannequin | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Charge | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Innervate Fury | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |