Water AlliesTier 1
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
13
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
114
59-48-7
overall winrate
54.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.7%
avg ELO +1.2 per match
expected value
51.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1358
· median 1419
· range 1126–1567
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
46% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
15% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 17 | 8-9-0 | 47.1% | 47.6% | 43.6% | -2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 16 | 6-9-1 | 40.6% | 42.5% | 40.6% | -3.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 28.2% | -11.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 65.4% | +6.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 53.8% | +1.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 18 | 8-9-1 | 47.2% | 47.7% | 56.9% | +2.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 42.5% | -3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 58.4% | +5.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 62.6% | +7.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.2% | +6.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +3.0 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 67.4% | +13.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +18.8 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.3% | +13.3 |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.5% | +15.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 27.5% | -21.6 |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 13 from this event
The 13 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Dungeon Guide, Slice and Dice, Seasprite Diver. Losers more often ran: Halocline Scout, Snow Fairy, Tariff Ring.
Dungeon Guide
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Slice and Dice
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Seasprite Diver
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Heavenly Guide
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Halocline Scout
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 0.
Snow Fairy
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Nia, Mistveiled Scout
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Extraction Incision
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Lunete, Frostbinder Priest
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 87 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 69 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halocline Scout | -1.00 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Rainweaver Mage | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nia, Mistveiled Scout | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Extraction Incision | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Corhazi Trapper | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Flash Grenade | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sinister Mindreaver | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Seeker's Rifle | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trained Sharpshooter | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dusklight Communion | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Umbral Tithe | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blastshot Pump | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Keen Huntress | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tactical Retreat | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deploy Gunshield | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lena, Dorumegia's Herald | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Archer | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Shadow's Twin | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Diana, Duskstalker | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Round | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| False Step | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diana, Deadly Duelist | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cascading Round | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Abundance | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Rain | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint of Eventide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fracturize | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scepter of Lumina | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Icebound Slam | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drifting Rogue | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Freezing Hail | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Shadowstrike | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Jueying, Shadowmare | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Esteemed Knight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Corhazi's Chosen | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Nurturing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |