Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
26
(8.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
213
91-100-22
overall winrate
47.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.1%
avg ELO -0.9 per match
expected value
48.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1323
· median 1301
· range 1089–1750
(26 pilots with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
19% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
23% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 59 | 21-31-7 | 41.5% | 42.1% | 37.8% | -4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 21 | 5-16-0 | 23.8% | 28.0% | 27.1% | -8.7 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 23 | 11-8-4 | 56.5% | 55.6% | 54.9% | +1.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 16 | 10-3-3 | 71.9% | 67.5% | 70.6% | +8.2 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 15 | 6-7-2 | 46.7% | 47.4% | 56.4% | +2.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 12 | 9-3-0 | 75.0% | 68.8% | 68.9% | +8.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 52.3% | +1.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 11 | 6-5-0 | 54.5% | 53.3% | 51.0% | +0.5 |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 34.6% | -6.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 53.3% | +1.8 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 26.5% | -15.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 21.6% | -27.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 68.1% | +10.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.9% | -10.6 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.4% | -0.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.4% | +2.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.7% | +7.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.2 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.7% | -16.6 |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.3% | -14.1 |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Kongming | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.2 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.1% | +2.9 |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 26 from this event
The 26 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Tonoris, Lone Mercenary, Diffusive Block, Tideholder Claymore. Losers more often ran: Tidal Lock, Cerulean Decree, Tidestone Bovine.
Tonoris, Lone Mercenary
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Diffusive Block
Winning decks ran 2.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Tideholder Claymore
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Hailstorm Guard
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Frostbind
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Snow Fairy
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Tidal Lock
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Cerulean Decree
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Tidestone Bovine
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Tithe Proclamation
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Revitalizing Cleanse
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Show all 69 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tidal Lock | -0.71 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | +0.57 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 4 | |
| Tidestone Bovine | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 3 | |
| Diffusive Block | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tideholder Claymore | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hailstorm Guard | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frostbind | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Seasprite Diver | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Spirit of Water | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Vaporjet Shieldbearer | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Spirit of Serene Water | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Rippleback Terrapin | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Smoke Bombs | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Fracturize | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Vaporjet Shield | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Scavenging Raccoon | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Seaside Ringleader | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Bulwark Sword | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Rimesoul Bishop | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ravishing Finale | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Lunete, Frostbinder Priest | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chilling Touch | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Silvie, Wilds Whisperer | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Aqueous Stallion | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Defender's Maul | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Torrential Blast | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Savage Smash | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Glacial Guidance | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Deep Sea Fractal | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Freezing Steel | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Sweep | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nascent Blast | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Freezing Hail | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cell Sharpshooter | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Krustallan Longsword | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arondight, Azure Blade | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Riptide Slash | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mordred, Flawless Blade | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inundating Clash | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tidal Tirade | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Primordial Ritual | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Glacial Evocation | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Waverider Protector | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghostsight Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |