Water KongmingTier 3
at Ascent Santa Clara
decks
1
(0.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
9
3-5-1
overall winrate
38.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.2 per match
expected value
46.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1100
· median 1100
· range 1100–1100
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
994
Q1 1197
Q3 1420
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slimes | 19.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Wind Allies | 10.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 8.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 8.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -14.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 7.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +19.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.2 |
| Fire Exia | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.6 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 2.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.8 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Arisanna | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Diana | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Jin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Kongming decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
